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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."