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"I'll be sitting in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer stated, joking that if the conversation went well, he might invite us into Number 10 for another chat in the coming year.

For a PM, there's never truly downtime for prime ministers. Shortly before our chat started, Sir Keir had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and working to decipher what on earth had transpired in Venezuela, where his close friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was considerably lengthier than normal, had concluded, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the year commences, Sir Keir seems to have had something of a reboot. Maybe even just a little relaxation with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

This seemed to have put him in a more positive mood than at the sluggish end of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.

But are he and his allies deluding themselves if they believe his fortunes are set to turn around?

Party Concerns

The grisly reality for the PM is that many of his fellow MPs believe he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and remove him this year.

However Starmer was having none of it during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he told me he'd be "assessed at the next election", insisting no one would remove his electoral mandate from him – despite the fact that the most effective strategy of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 might be for Labour to replace its leader.

"This is the struggle of our lifetime and I aim to guide the party," he declared.

Upcoming Local Votes

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be judged far sooner than then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to protest, maybe too much, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

True – to some extent. But even though he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir suggesting that there were no situation under which he would resign, should one of his MPs challenged him for the job, should those elections be disastrous for Labour.

Promises of Improvement

He tried to account for his low poll ratings by saying the public was naturally anxious for things to improve. He tried to convince me, and the nation, that this year would be a change.

The economic situation would recover despite rising unemployment, he claimed, when strategies the administration put in place during their initial turbulent year began to take effect.

• He pledged to empty asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, although he wouldn't set a new date on that.
• He noted too, with the caveat that it was not a foregone conclusion, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's major invasion.
• He revealed for the first time that Western allies were now discussing how to coordinate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to guard a potential peace.

His big argument is that in 2026 the country will "see an improvement".

Political Challenges

The PM may have spoken with more energy than observed from him for a while – less tense, perhaps, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of encountering calls from many directions for a more decisive approach, with much more political direction, more urgency, more pace and more urgency, his explanations were well-known ones.

Given that he is in such significant political peril, should he consider a change of tack?

No administration, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, gets everything its own way.

Sir Keir's problems are not just because governing is difficult, but because he and his team have faltered, including in the last few weeks.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM admitted that he was sorry for saying he was "pleased" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when past remarks he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Sir Keir attributed it to "the process" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is facing clear political risks as the year unfolds. His close relationship with the US president entails a new risk after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be comfortable with this kind of intervention seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "career-long proponent of international law" but we "just do not have the full picture at the moment".

Critics demanded criticise the action before we spoke. And the government is likely to face further scrutiny to give an explicit view in Parliament in the coming days.

And there has always been bubbling tension in the Labour ranks to revisit some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM denies he's doing that, but his new specific plan to integrate further with the EU's single market – the giant economic European trading zone – will probably provoke protests that he is going back on his pledge never to try to undo the decisions that flowed from Brexit.

A move to cosy up to more of the single market will delight a faction on his own side, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to